Introduction

This is the type of bet that most people have placed at some point; either the home or away team to win the match. Bets are placed using the 'Match Odds' market on Betfair.

Because it's such a popular type of bet, Match Odds is one of the biggest markets on Betfair with plenty of liquidity.

For example, as I write this on Thursday 25th January, there's already £15,415 matched in this Premier League market for a fixture that's not due to be played for another five days!

This gives you the option to carry out your research a day or two ahead of time in the biggest leagues, but be aware that there's still plenty of time for market prices to move.

Imagine that you back a team to win, then a key player picks up an injury and their price moves out. Suddenly, the green ticks that indicate perceived value disappear and you wish you'd waited!

Of course, you can never avoid every eventuality but, the closer to kick-off you carry out your research, the more robust the market prices will be. It's worth bearing in mind.

Home Win

Here are sensible guidelines when looking for a bet:

The home team should have won at least 60% of their matches at home
The home win price should be at least 1.90, ideally 2.00
The home team should be above the away team in the league table

Below, you can see the 'Full Game Home/Away' tab of the Live Value Shortlists tool with the '1/3/10' filter selected for 'Home'.

There are 3 fixtures that have 3 green ticks.

The home win price for Atletico Madrid v Valencia is only 1.56 so that's well below my guideline and Volendam are below Fortuna Sittard in the league table so that fixture also fails.

The only fixture that satisfies my guidelines is Burgos v Albacete. You can also see that Albacete have lost 64% of their away games, which is even better.

Live Value Shortlists tool identifying Burgos v Albacete

The Score Table for Burgos shows that they have not lost a game at home all season. More importantly, against teams similar to Albacete (on the right) they have won 2/3 home games.

As for Albacete, they have only won once away from home all season. Against teams similar to Burgos, they have lost 3/3 away from home.

I was very happy to back the home win. In fact, I was able to get matched at 2.70 rather than 2.68 which was a little more than the Live Value Shortlists suggested.

In the Betfair 'Match Odds' market, I backed Burgos with a stake of £10.00.

This gave me a potential profit of £16.66 on the home win and a liability of £10.00 on the draw and away win.

Burgos v Albacete Match Odds Betfair market

Burgos took an early lead and this gave me the opportunity to show you how trading works.

Because Burgos were now 1-0 ahead, they were more likely to win the game so the home win price dropped from 2.70 to 1.58.

I layed Burgos with my original £10.00 stake which removed all liability from the market.

You can see below that I now had a 'free bet' on Burgos because there was a potential profit of £10.98 on the home win and scratch (no profit or loss) on the draw and away win.

Yes, it cost £5.68 of the potential profit but it removed the £10.00 of risk.

Burgos v Albacete Match Odds Betfair market after trade

It's up to you whether you choose to trade or not.

A late goal handed Burgos the win, so my bet/trade won.

Away Win

Here are sensible guidelines when looking for a bet:

The away team should have won at least 60% of their away matches
The away win price should be at least 2.50
The away team should be above the home team in the league table

The full-time away win is generally more reliable than the half-time away win because no team has to be leading at half-time. Also, market liquidity is far better in this market.

When selecting the '1/3/10' filter for 'Away' there was only one fixture that satisfied my guidelines. I also noticed that Celta de Vigo had lost 45% of their home games this season.

Live Value Shortlists tool identifying Celta de Vigo v Girona

The left hand side of the Score Table for Celta de Vigo showed generally poor form through the season but then a couple of recent wins.

On the right, however, I could see that they had lost 3/3 home games against top third teams and hadn't even managed a goal.

Girona were 2nd in the league table and had won the vast majority of their games away from home. Their last two away games had ended as draws, but overall it was very impressive.

Against teams similar to Celta de Vigo, they had won 6/6 away.

I backed the away win at 2.62 and a single goal was good enough to secure the win.

Full Game Home/Away

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