Introduction

On the final Live Value Shortlists tab, you're looking for bets in the 'Over/Under 1.5 Goals', 'Over/Under 2.5 Goals' and 'Both Teams to Score' markets.

The average game of football has 2.65 goals which is why the average Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score prices are a little under even money (2.00).

The Over 1.5 Goals price is always well below 2.00 at kick-off, so place these as doubles.

Over 3.5 Goals is well above the average so Paul didn't tackle that type of bet.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market has the best liquidity of these markets. This Premier League fixture is due to be played in five days time and there's already £483 matched.

The same fixture only has £128 matched in the Both Teams to Score market and Betfair haven't even opened the Over/Under 1.5 Goals market yet.

While this early liquidity allows you to potentially carry out research in advance for Over 2.5 Goals bets in the biggest leagues, it's not possible in smaller leagues.

For example, this English Championship fixture is due to be played three days earlier and yet there's only £28 matched in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.

As always, it's better to carry out your research on the day that the fixture is due to be played so that you're certain that the perceived value calculation is robust.

Over 1.5 Goals

Here are Paul's guidelines when looking for a bet:

At least 80% of combined matches should have had 2+ goals
The price for an Over 1.5 Goals double should be at least 1.90, ideally 2.00

You can see below that there were plenty of qualifiers on this day, but that Atalanta v Lazio was the only one with the Over 1.5 Goals price above 1.40.

Live Value Shortlists tool showing qualifiers for Over 1.5 Goals

Paul already knew from the values on the Live Value Shortlists tool that most matches for both teams went over 1.5 goals, he just wanted to check results against similar teams before risking his stake.

He clicked on 'Atalanta' to open the Score Table and saw on the right hand side that 3/3 Atalanta home games against teams similar to Lazio had ended with 2 or more goals.

He then clicked on 'Lazio' and saw that 2/3 away games at top third teams (similar to Atalanta) had ended with 2 or more goals.

Paul backed 'Over 1.5 Goals' in the 'Over/Under 2.5 Goals' market at 1.42 with a stake of £10.00.

You can see below that he had a liability of £10.00 and a potential profit of £4.21 (after commission).

Atalanta v Lazio 'Over 1.5 Goals' Betfair market

Paul's bet won easily and he started to look for a second bet to complete his double.

The next strong opportunity came 5 days later, also in Italian Serie A.

There were a couple of potential qualifiers on this particular evening, but only Salernitana v Empoli was priced well enough.

Live Value Shortlists tool showing qualifiers for Over 1.5 Goals

The Live Value Shortlists tool showed Paul that every Salernitana home game had finished with at least 2 goals, so there was no real need to check the Score Table.

However, he did note that both teams had scored in 3/3 matches against bottom third teams. Quite obviously, having a good chance of goals at both ends of the pitch helps 'overs' bets.

2/3 Empoli away games had finished with 2 or more goals, but both teams had scored in them.

Especially when looking at teams towards the bottom of the league table, you do want to make sure that they can score goals rather than simply let them in.

Paul backed 'Over 1.5 Goals' in the 'Over/Under 1.5 Goals' market at 1.47 with a stake of £14.21 (his original £10.00 stake plus £4.21 profit).You can see below that he had a liability of £14.21 and a potential profit of £6.54.

Salernitana v Empoli 'Over 1.5 Goals' Betfair market

As at Atalanta, there were plenty of goals and he had another easy winner.

Paul's original £10.00 stake had become £20.75 (£14.21 plus another £6.54) which was a little more than double.

Over 2.5 Goals

Here are Paul's guidelines when looking for a bet:

At least 60% of combined matches should have had 3+ goals
At least 50% of matches for each team should have had 3+ goals
The price for Over 2.5 Goals should be at least 1.90, ideally 2.00

Those percentages could easily move up or down as you test different angles.

Here's a great example of a busy Saturday with plenty of potential bets.

You can see below that 5 fixtures passed the first couple of guidelines.

Live Value Shortlists tool showing qualifiers for Over 2.5 Goals

The Over 2.5 Goals price was only 1.87 at Kortrijk and OH Leuven. That match finished 0-0, so well avoided! The price at Gent v Westerlo was only 1.58 (it finished 2-2).

Werder Bremen v Freiburg was priced at 1.92 but, with a couple of other qualifiers above 2.00, Paul decided to leave that one alone. As you can see below, it ended 3-1.

Pisa v Spezia was priced much better at 2.24.

Paul clicked on 'Pisa' to open up the Score Table and saw that their recent results at home had been 2-2, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1. That was not at all what he wanted to see.

On the right hand side, against similar opposition at home their games had ended 1-2 and 1-0.

Spezia's away games had produced plenty of goals throughout the season. They hadn't really played against teams similar to Pisa, but the vast majority of their away games had gone over 2.5 goals.

Given Pisa's recent form, he decided to leave this one alone as well.

It finished 2-3 so would have been an easy winner, but if there's a 'red flag' he prefers to play it safe.

The final game that Paul looked at was Doncaster Rovers v Stockport County.

He clicked on Doncaster Rovers and the Score Table showed him that the majority of their home games had gone over 2.5 goals. Against top third teams, 4/4 had gone over 2.5 goals. A good start.

Stockport County were top of the league and 75% of their away games had gone over 2.5 goals. They'd only played one bottom third team away from home and that one had finished 2-4.

Paul was happy to take on a bet in this match.

Using the 'Over/Under 2.5 Goals' market on Betfair, he backed 'Over 2.5 Goals' at 2.04 for a stake of £10.00. You can see below that he had a potential profit of £10.19 after commission.

Doncaster Rovers v Stockport County Match Odds market on Betfair

The bet came in very easily, in fact he was paid out well before half-time!

Doncaster Rovers v Stockport County result

Both Teams to Score (BTS)

Here are Paul's guidelines when looking for a bet:

At least 75% of combined matches should have had both teams scoring
The Both Teams to Score price should be at least 1.90, ideally 2.00

That 75% figure is very high and could probably come down, especially if your further research shows that both teams are capable of scoring against similar opposition.

Below, you can see that Utrecht v Volendam qualified.

Paul knew from experience that the Dutch Eredivisie has plenty of goals which made the 2.12 price very attractive. He decided to take a closer look.

Live Value Shortlists tool showing qualifiers for Both Teams to Score

The Score Table showed Paul that both teams had scored in each of Utrecht's last 6 home games.

On the right hand side, he could see that both teams had scored in 2/2 home games against bottom third teams.

Looking at Volendam's away games through the season, both teams had scored in the vast majority and both teams had scored in 2/2 away games against bottom third teams.

Very strong form for both teams and a really attractive price to back 'Yes' in Betfair's 'Both teams to Score?' market. It was a winner before half-time.

Betting Full Game Goals

You must be logged in to access this course