Introduction

Trade Your Bets is a very simple concept, but the database that powers it uses a number of complex algorithms and more than 10 years worth of data.

We've made it very easy to ensure that you're betting and trading with value, but it's vital that you understand exactly what value is and why it's so important.

Let's start at the very beginning...

What is Value?

In simple terms, value means that the Betfair price is greater than the true probability of the event actually occurring.

For example, the true probability of a coin flip landing on heads or tails is exactly 50-50. The fair price is 2.00 and anything above that price represents value.

Think about it... if you were to flip a coin 1,000,000 times and you were offered 2.10 each time the coin landed on heads, you'd be guaranteed a profit.

Of course, the difficulty with football fixtures is working out the true probability.

Perceived Value

The best that anyone can do with football is calculate perceived value. This includes bookmakers with their teams of analysts and mathematicians.

Whereas a coin flip is a single event that has an exact 50-50 chance, every 90 minutes of football features hundreds and thousands of micro events that come together to produce the final result.

There are completed passes, wayward passes, moments of brilliance, individual mistakes, refereeing errors, red cards and so on.

It's impossible to predict each event accurately, but what we can do is take a step back and attempt to calculate the probability of macro events such as the match winner, the number of goals, etc.

We then compare that probability with the Betfair price in order to identify perceived value.

How do we Calculate Perceived Value?

Every day, we calculate perceived value in 8 different Betfair markets for every fixture in 85 leagues around the world.

There are three algorithms that power Trade Your Bets:

3 Year

How Trade Your Bets Works

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